Another fiscal year has passed and with it unfortunately so has some of our optimism. Who would have ever predicted we would see relatively stable $65 to $70 WTI pricing and Canadian development activity in “recession mode.” Yes, Canadian natural gas prices do give reason for pause from the drill bit but that’s only about 40% of our story for growth. Without tempering our optimism, it would appear that for the foreseeable future ‘flat is the new up’ for Canada. The Canadian energy sector continues to reel as one challenge after another hits our industry. Meanwhile we watch from the sidelines as our largest customer and largest competitor south of the border is disruptive to Canada in so many ways, including being very effective in attracting more and more capital to develop their near market hydrocarbon resources. To add even more insult to injury, they are attracting Canadian capital, people and equipment resources which in essence create even more barriers to Canadian development – we are threatening our existence, in part at the hand of our own sword.
In spite of all the headwinds, our industry remains resilient, determined and cautiously optimistic that there are better days ahead.
As we move into the latter part of 2018, it’s time to reflect on the past year as we do some crystal ball gazing in an effort to try to predict what 2019 and beyond development activity is going to look like.
In reflection of the past 12 months:
The past twelve months has been extremely challenging for our industry with an unprecedented number of challenges. Unfortunately, we do not see 2019 being without similar challenges – absent having any shovels in the ground for either LNG Canada or the Trans Mountain Expansion at the time of writing, we are anticipating activity levels similar to 2017 and 2018 levels with around 7000 wells drilled. Given the fact that we continue to see longer lateral lengths increasing on average of about 200 meters per well we expect to see year over year growth in meterage drilled.
Despite all the challenges facing the industry forward, PSAC proudly charges ahead more determined than ever to ensure our members have a trusted seat and voice at the table of all stakeholder engagement opportunities. We believe that if we are at the table we have a much better chance of contributing to the solution.
Thank you for entrusting us with your issues and challenges as we are only as good as the information we are armed with.
This year, PSAC continued to pursue many federal and provincial issues and initiatives of importance to members through over 100 meetings with ministers, deputies and senior government officials and staff on key topics that included international trade (NAFTA and steel), pipelines (tidewater access), competitiveness, well decommissioning (jobs), hydraulic fracturing (prevent moratoriums), new Alberta labour legislation Bill 17, Saskatchewan PST, methane regulations, and energy literacy.
Meetings were held with federal and AB, BC, SK, NL, NB, NS ministers, deputies and senior government officials to ensure that PSAC is the recognized voice for the sector in consultations for changing or new legislation and regulations.
Submissions on a variety of topics and government consultations were made including for US steel tariffs, federal 2019 pre-budget, and BC’s Clean Energy Future.
A win for PSAC members: Through continued lobbying efforts, the $30 million grant promised by the federal government in early 2017 and leveraged by the Alberta government to loan $235 million to the Orphan Well Association was finally received in December. This loan will provide funds to accelerate decommissioning of orphan wells and thereby creating much needed work and jobs for PSAC members for many years. An information for members was held in February.
A second-phase to create work and jobs for PSAC members through decommissioning inactive wells and new development drilling has been underway in the form of a Sustainable Environmental Energy Investment (SEEI) proposal that would see a federal tax mechanism be created (flow-through shares) with an expected $830 million ready to be invested.
PSAC held two successful lobby day events to Ottawa, and Victoria to educate government on the sector and discuss current issues and challenges, and also participated in the Canadian Manufacturing Coalition’s lobby day meetings:
Roundtables were another critical element of our work to ensure PSAC members interests were raised including on NAFTA, Steel, Climate Change Plan Impacts, Regulatory Barriers to Trade, Investment and Labour Mobility, and Labour issues.
Other issues to which PSAC directs attention include LNG, Bill C-69 (Impact Assessment Act), Bill C-48 (tanker moratorium), Clean Fuel Standard, Indigenous Relations, geothermal opportunities, and US Relations.
|Sep-17||Featured Panelist: CGEF Conference
Featured Panelist: SAIT Industry Panel
Presentation: Fox Creek Operators Group
|Oct-17||U.K. Well Decommissioning Breakfast Presentation
Presentation: 3rd Annual Saskatchewan Oil and Gas Supply Chain Forum – Regina
Presentation – Greater Vancouver Board of Trade – Vancouver
Alberta OH&S Review Workshop – Red Deer
Presentation: The Future of Energy: Direct from the SingularityU Canada Summit
PSAC AGM, Industry Insights Luncheon, Drilling Activity Forecast
|Nov-17||PSAC Federal Outreach Delegation – Ottawa
Presentation: American Petroleum Institute – Houston
Presentation: Chartered Professional Accountants of Canada’s National Oil & Gas Industry Conference
Sponsorship: Naturally Resourceful event
|Dec-17||Industry Roundtable Discussion – NAFTA w/Parliamentary Secretary Andrew Leslie|
|Jan-18||STARS and Spurs Gala
Presentation: MNP Oilfield Service Update
PSAC Oilfield Services Breakfast Update – Grande Prairie
Sponsorship: 2018 BC Natural Resources Forum
Jan 2018 Drilling Activity Forecast Update
|Feb-18||PSAC-Canadian Trade Commissioner Webinar Series|
|Mar-18||Presentation: Kenyan Delegation
Grant Thornton Oil and Gas Roundtable – Discuss collaboration between E&Ps and suppliers
|Apr-18||Decommissioning & Reclamation Opportunities Information Session
PSAC Spring Workshop – Red Deer
Apr 2018 Drilling Activity Forecast Update and Mid-Year Luncheon
|May-18||Presentation: Argus Canadian Crude Summit|
|Jun-18||Presentation: BC LNG Alliance
Presentation: Global Petroleum Show – Young GPS
Presentation: Global Petroleum Show – US Consul General
Participation: The First Nations, Métis and Inuit (FNMI) Trades Carnival
Global Petroleum Show PSAC Pavilion
Going Global Phase 3 Report and Event
Hydraulic Fracturing Presentation: Fortis BC
|Jul-18||Presentation: Senegalese Delegation
2018 Working Energy Golf Tournament
Jul 2018 Drilling Activity Forecast Update
|Aug-18||Presentation: Industry session on Area Based Closure (ABC) hosted by AER|
Scott Van Vliet, Director, Board Chair
Duncan Au, Director, Board First Vice-Chair
Mark O’Byrne, Director, Board Second Vice-Chair
January McKee, Director, Board Third Vice-Chair
Tom Whalen, Secretary
|Richard (Dick) Brown
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Ferus Inc.Grant Stevens
President and Chief Executive Officer
Grant Production Testing Services Ltd.
Henry Ewert, CPA, CA
J. Douglas (Doug) McNeill, Past Chair